Bangalore: China will attack India by 2012 to distract the attention of its own people from "unprecedented" internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems that are threatening the hold of Communists in that country, according to a leading defense expert.
"China will launch an attack on India before 2012. There are multiple reasons for a desperate Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century," said Bharat Verma, Editor, Indian Defense Review
According to Verma, the recession has "shut the Chinese exports shop", developing an "unprecedented internal social unrest" which in return, was severely jeopardizing Communists grip over the society. Rising unemployment, flight of capital worth billions of dollars, depletion of its foreign exchange reserves and growing internal dissent are several other reasons for this assessment.
"The growing irrelevance of Pakistan, their right hand that operates against India on their behest, is increasing the Chinese nervousness," he said adding that the U.S. President Barak Obama's Afghan-Pak policy was basically a Pak-Afghan policy that has "intelligently set thief to catch the thief".
"Beijing was already rattled, with its proxy Pakistan now literally embroiled in a civil war, losing its sheen against India." The assessment also states that China is worried over the India's growing alliances with the U.S. and the West, because it has the potential to create a technologically superior counterpoise.
"All these three concerns of Chinese Communists are best addressed by waging a war against pacifist India to achieve multiple strategic objectives," said Verma.
As China allowed North Korea to test underground nuclear explosion in a hidden manner, and carry out missile trials, it was also "increasing its naval presence in South China Sea to coerce into submission those opposing its claim on the Sprately Islands," the expert said.
It would be inexpedient for recession-hit China to move against the Western interests, including Japan, at this point of time. "Therefore, the most attractive option is to attack a soft target like India and forcibly occupy its territory in the Northeast," said Verma.
On ground, India is least prepared to face the Chinese threat, he says. Verma puts a series of questions on India's response to repulse the Chinese game plan or whether Indian leadership would be able to "take the heat of war".
"Is Indian military equipped to face the two-front wars by Beijing and Islamabad? Is the Indian civil administration geared to meet the internal security challenges that the external actors will sponsor simultaneously through their doctrine of unrestricted warfare? "The answers are an unequivocal 'no'. Pacifist India is not ready by a long shot either on the internal or the external front," he opined.
