When asked what will cause World War III, most people will immediately say "The Middle East". Try it, it's a fun experiment. However, the truth is most nations have known what the Middle East is like for hundreds of years, and have managed to prevent having an all out global war so far. While it's certainly possible that this region will eventually cause WWIII, I'd like to examine three almost entirely overlooked causes that will almost certainly cause a World War if not addressed in the very near future. If nothing else, they are each ticking time-bombs with a span of a few decades or less before all hell breaks loose.
Diversion of The Brahmaputra River(INDO-CHINA issue)
SUMMARY: China, faced with an imminent food and water crisis, has proposed, approved, and begun the South-North Water Transfer Project (南水北调工程) to divert many rivers to increase its arable land capacity. The Brahmaputra River is one of the rivers chosen for diversion. Currently it feeds into eastern India, and is a vital source of water and tributaries there. If diverted, eastern India will be in an immediate water crisis, both for drinking and farming, and roughly a million people stand to lose their home, lives, or both. Both countries are at hostile relations with one another, and literally millions of lives depend on the fate of this river. If China proceeds with the diversion, India will consider it an act of war, and will act accordingly. If China doesn't complete the diversion, millions of Chinese will end up dying as a result of water and food shortage. Both are enormously populated nuclear powers and fully committed to their stance.
OUTCOME: If a nuclear exchange does not take place, India will most likely be defeated by Chinese conventional warfare unless assisted by equally strong allies, such as the United States. China would follow suit, and the UN would quickly find itself polarized by two most powerful members. World War would be the inevitable next step unless a compromise were reached. If nuclear exchange does take place between India and China, India may find itself without allies, and destroyed by China. In a "best-case" scenario, millions will find themselves displaced or dead by the removal of half India's water source. There is no "good" outcome to this situation.
Claims on The North Pole(many Europe nation claim for)
SUMMARY: Few people consider the incredible impact that one country's sole ownership of The North Pole would have. It is estimated that a fourth of the world's undiscovered gas and oil is present there, along with other strategic resources like uranium, titanium, and gold. Additionally, as global climate change shrinks the polar caps, the North Pole will soon become the quickest sea route between 3 continents, and five major countries, each of which claims ownership despite international law that states no country shall have ownership of the North Pole. Russia, Canada, America, Denmark, and Norway all have placed various claims on the area. In fact, now anyone can attempt to place a claim on the area. With such an incredible wealth of economic and strategic advantage at stake over an area rife with controversy, it is only a matter of time before one country attempts a squat and violence ensues.OUTCOME: Between their planting of a flag on the sea bed, and new evidence suggesting their continental shelf extends all the way to the pole, and a powerful military and economic backing to enforce its claim, Russia is the most likely to attempt the first squat. While Norway, Denmark, and Canada may demand UN sanctions as a result, the U.S., threatened by both the military proximity of their traditional nemesis as well as the loss of countless potential resources, will most likely threated military action against Russia. With the incredibly high Anti-American sentiment in Russia, the advent of Putinism, and the view that America's military is significantly weakened as the result of the Iraq war, Russia will most likely not back down until violence escalates between the two nuclear nations. This may in turn be seen as an ideal opportunity for Russia, North Korea, and China to create a joint venture to strengthen the Russian position in the region, prompting the U.S., Canada, and their respective allies to respond in kind. With so much at stake, it is highly unlikely the situation will be resolved peacefully.
